What is NN Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
NN Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
NN (NNBR) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6210 Ardrey Kell Road, Suite 600, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28277
NN Inc is a diversified industrial company that combines engineering and production capabilities with in-depth materials science expertise to design and manufacture high-precision solutions and components. It operates in two business segments: mobile solutions and power solutions. The mobile solutions segment involves growth in the general industrial and automotive end markets. Its power solutions segment involves growth in the electrical and aerospace and defense end markets. It also operates in China, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, and other countries.
Executives
| Rajeev Gautam |
director |
C/O HONEYWELL, 300 S. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202 |
| Timothy M. French |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, SUITE 600, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Joao V Faria |
director |
1000 EATON BLVD., CLEVELAND OH 44122 |
| Corre Partners Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
12 EAST 49TH STREET, SUITE 4003, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Harold C Bevis |
officer: President and CEO |
8537 SIX FORKS RD., SUITE 300, RALEIGH NC 27615 |
| Wilson Thomas Hampton Jr. |
director |
PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708 |
| Raynard D. Benvenuti |
director |
6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Shihab A. Kuran |
director |
6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Christina Carroll |
director |
16529 ADLON ROAD, ENCINO CA 91436 |
| Jeri J Harman |
director |
|
| Corre Opportunities Qualified Master Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
12 EAST 49TH STREET, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Warren A Veltman |
officer: SVP/GM Autocam Precision Comp. |
2000 WATERS EDGE DRIVE, BUILDING C, SUITE 12, JOHNSON CITY TN 37604 |
| Felcher, Jr. Michael C. |
officer: See Remarks |
6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, SUITE 600, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Eric Hjalmar Soderlund |
10 percent owner |
12 EAST 49TH STREET 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Corre Partners Advisors Llc |
10 percent owner |
12 EAST 49TH STREET 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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