NeuroOne Medical Technologies (NeuroOne Medical Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is NeuroOne Medical Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NeuroOne Medical Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NeuroOne Medical Technologies (NeuroOne Medical Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » NeuroOne Medical Technologies Corp (NAS:NMTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7599 Anagram Dr., Eden Prairie, MN, USA, 55344

Website

https://www.n1mtc.com

NeuroOne Medical Technologies Corp operates as a medical technology company. It is focused on the development and commercialization of thin-film electrode technology for continuous electroencephalogram (cEEG) and stereoelectrocencephalography (sEEG) recording, brain stimulation, and ablation solutions for patients suffering from brain-related disorders. The company business is in one operating segment, which is the business of development and commercialization of products related to comprehensive neuromodulation cEEG and sEEG recording, monitoring, ablation, and brain stimulation solutions.

Executives

Mark Christianson	10 percent owner, officer: VP, Business Dev and Marketing	10006 LIATRIS LANE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Ronald W. Mcclurg	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEUROONE MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 7599 ANAGRAM DR, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
David A Rosa	director, officer: CEO and President	10901 RED CIRCLE DRIVE, SUITE 150, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Hijaz Haris	officer: VP of Marketing	C/O NEUROONE MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 7599 ANAGRAM DR, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Morgan C. Frank	10 percent owner	2 CALLE NAIRN, UNIT 701, SAN JUAN PR 00907
Manchester Management Co Llc	10 percent owner	3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Manchester Explorer, L.p.	10 percent owner	MANCHESTER MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.L.C, 3 WEST HILL PLACE, Boston ma 02114
James E Besser	10 percent owner	3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114
Manchester Management Pr, Llc	10 percent owner	3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114
Edward Andrle	director	C/O NEUROONE MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 7599 ANAGRAM DRIVE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Wade Fredrickson	10 percent owner	10006 LIATRIS LANE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Steve Mertens	officer: Chief Technology Officer	10901 RED CIRCLE DR., SUITE 150, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Scott Heuler	officer: Vice President of Sales	10901 RED CIRCLE DR., SUITE 150, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Paul Buckman	director	12988 VALLEY VIEW RD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55402
Suraj Kalia	director	10006 LIATRIS LANE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347