Nkarta (Nkarta) Predictability Rank

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What is Nkarta Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nkarta Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nkarta (Nkarta) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Nkarta Inc (NAS:NKTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6000 Shoreline Court, Suite 102, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.nkartatx.com

Nkarta Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in developing engineered natural killer (NK) cells to treat cancer. The Company is engaged in leveraging the natural potent power of NK cells to identify and kill abnormal cells and recruit adaptive immune effectors to generate responses that are specific and durable. The company is combining its NK expansion platform technology with proprietary cell engineering technologies to generate an abundant supply of NK cells, engineer enhanced NK cell recognition of tumor targets, and improve persistence for sustained activity in the body for the treatment of cancer. The Company's operations are based in South San Francisco, California.

Executives

Paul J Hastings	director, officer: See Remarks	61 HARTFORD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
David Shook	officer: Chief Medical Officer	6000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 102, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Alicia J. Hager	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ONCOMED PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 800 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Ralph Brandenberger	officer: Sr. VP, Technical Operations	6000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 102, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
James Trager	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	6000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 102, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Alyssa Levin	officer: See Remarks	6000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 102, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Nadir Mahmood	officer: Chief Business Officer	6000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 102, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Simeon George	director	161 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 500, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Angela Thedinga	director	C/O ADVERUM BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1035 O'BRIEN DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ra Capital Nexus Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Kanya Rajangam	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SENTI BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2 CORPORATE DRIVE, FIRST FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Plc Glaxosmithkline	director, 10 percent owner	980 GREAT WEST ROAD, BRENTFORD MIDDLESEX X0 TW8 9GS
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900