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Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, (Tortoise Energy Independence Fund,) Predictability Rank


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What is Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Tortoise Energy Independence Fund,'s Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, (Tortoise Energy Independence Fund,) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc. (NYSE:NDP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NMS LRFC CEE GEG NBW FAM EEA JMM RSF PNF BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6363 College Boulevard, Suite 100A, Overland Park, KS, USA, 66211
Website
https://www.tortoiseecofin.com
Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc. is a non-diversified closed-end management investment company. Its primary investment objective to seek a high level of total return with an emphasis on current distributions. The fund invests primarily in equity securities of upstream North American energy companies that engage in the exploration and production of crude oil, condensate, natural gas and natural gas liquids that generally have a presence in North American oil and gas fields, including shale reservoirs.
Executives
Ciccotello Conrad S director 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Jennifer Paquette director 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
H Kevin Birzer director 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Rand C Berney director 11550 ASH STREET, SUITE 300, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Alexandra Herger director 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Matthew Sallee other: Member of Investment Committee 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
P. Bradley Adams officer: Chief Financial Officer 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Brian Alan Kessens other: Member of Investment Committee 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Shobana Gopal officer: Vice President 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Sean Paul Wickliffe officer: Vice President & Asst Treas. 6363 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Investors, Llp Bulldog 10 percent owner PARK 80 WEST - PLAZA TWO, 250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Phillip Goldstein 10 percent owner 60 HERITAGE DRIVE, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Andrew Dakos 10 percent owner 250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Aristides Fund Qp, Lp 10 percent owner 118 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Aristides Fund Lp 10 percent owner C/O ARISTIDES CAPITAL LLC, 118 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, LOUISVILLE KY 40202

Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, (Tortoise Energy Independence Fund,) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Top 5 1st Quarter Trades of Bulldog Investors, LLP

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 05-15-2022

Saba Capital Management, L.P. Reduces Stake in Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc.

By GuruFocus Research • 11-14-2023

Tortoise Announces Termination of Proposed Merger of Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund, Inc. (TTP) and Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc. (NDP)

By ACCESSWIRE ACCESSWIRE • 06-04-2021

Bulldog Investors, LLP Acquires Shares in Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc.

By GuruFocus Research • 07-19-2023