Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
NetSuite Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
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NetSuite Inc was incorporated in California in September 1998 and reincorporated in Delaware in November 2007. The Company is engaged in providing cloud-based financials / Enterprise Resource Planning and omnichannel commerce software suites. It also offers suite of applications, including financial management, Customer Relationship Management, Ecommerce and retail management, Professional Services Automation and Human Capital Management that enable companies to manage its business operations. The Company's offerings include NetSuite, designed to provide business management capabilities; NetSuite, OneWorld and NetSuite CRM+ are designed for use by types of businesses; and NetSuite OpenAir is designed for use by professional services businesses. The Company's NetSuite applications are served to medium-sized businesses and divisions of companies provides a single platform for financials/ERP, CRM, PSA and Ecommerce capabilities. Its NetSuite OneWorld software is offered to companies operating in multinational and multi-subsidiary environment. NetSuite OneWorld allows users to utilize its single platform for financials/ERP, CRM, PSA and Ecommerce capabilities in multi-currency environments across multiple subsidiaries and legal entities. Its NetSuite CRM+ is offered to medium-sized business customers. This application provides traditional sales force automation, marketing automation, and customer support and service management functionality. NetSuite OpenAir PSA solution is used by professional services organizations. SuiteCommerce solution is built for retail and B2B businesses. SuiteCommerce enables businesses to move from standalone transactional channels such as online, in-store or telephone to an integrated commerce solution that puts the customer at the center of every experience. NetSuite POS is a point-of-sale solution that is used by retail businesses to deliver customer experience at the point of sale and turn today's shopper into tomorrow's loyal customer. TribeHR is a full suite of HCM functionality necessary to recruit, manage and reward employees. Add-On Modules offers integrated suite. SuiteCloud is a technology platform that allows customers, partners and developers to tailor and extend suite to meet specific company, vertical and industry requirements for personalization, business processes and practices. The Company's software allows businesses to automate operations, streamline processes and access real-time business information. It also offer customer support and professional services related to implementing and supporting its applications. It delivers its suite over the Internet as a subscription service using the software-as-a-service model. It also offers industry-specific configurations for use by wholesale/distribution, manufacturing, retail, nonprofit, services and software companies. The Company conducts its business in Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia and Uruguay. The Company competes with financials/ERP, C
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