MyMD Pharmaceuticals (MyMD Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is MyMD Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MyMD Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MyMD Pharmaceuticals (MyMD Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » MyMD Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:MYMD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DQS:Germany DQS:Germany

Address

855 North Wolfe Street, Suite 601, Baltimore, MD, USA, 21205

Website

https://www.mymd.com

MyMD Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company committed to extending a healthy lifespan. It is developing and commercializing two therapeutic platforms. MyMD-1 is a small molecule that regulates the immunometabolic system to treat autoimmune diseases, including multiple sclerosis, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease. It is being developed to treat age-related illnesses such as frailty and sarcopenia. Supera-1R is a synthetic derivative of CBD being developed to treat various conditions, including epilepsy, pain, and anxiety/depression, through its effects on the CB2 receptor, opioid receptors, and a monoamine oxidase enzyme type B.

Executives

Paul Rivard	officer: EVP of Operations, GC	C/O AKERS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Joshua Silverman	director	IROQUOIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 205 EAST 42ND ST - 20TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10017
Caroline C Williams	10 percent owner	324 SOUTH HYDE PARK AVENUE, SUITE 350, TAMPA FL 33606
Adam Kaplin	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O AKERS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jude Uzonwanne	director	C/O AKERS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Craig Eagle	director	POST OFFICE BOX 4590, NEW YORK NY 10163
Chapman Christopher C Jr	director, officer: President, Chief Med. Officer	C/O STAR SCIENTIFIC, INC., 7475 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 850, BETHESDA MD 20814
Ian Rhodes	officer: Interim CFO	1375 KINGS HIGHWAY EAST, FAIRFIELD CT 06824
Stuart M Benson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EMPIRE STATE BUILDING, 350 5TH AVE., SUITE 7520, NEW YORK NY 10118
Hudson Bay Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sander Gerber	10 percent owner	C/O HUDSON BAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Robert C Schroeder	director	37 MAIN STREET, COLD SPRING HARBOR, NEW YORK NY 11724
Howard Yeaton	officer: CEO, CFO	79 LLOYD ROAD, HOHOKUS NJ 07423
Tarbox Richard C Iii	director	AKERS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 201 GROVE ROAD, THOROFARE NJ 08086
Christopher C Schreiber	director	AKERS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 201 GROVE ROAD, THOROFARE NJ 08086