Movella Holdings (Movella Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Movella Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Movella Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Movella Holdings (Movella Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Movella Holdings Inc (OTCPK:MVLA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3535 Executive Terminal Drive, Suite 110, Henderson, NV, USA, 89052

Website

https://www.movella.com

Movella Holdings Inc is a full-stack provider of sensors, software, and analytics that enable the digitization of movement. It serves the entertainment, health & sports, and automation & mobility markets.

Executives

Ben A Lee	director, officer: See Remarks	3408 GARRETT DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Stephen M Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Boele De Bie	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MOVELLA INC., 2570 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 300, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Industry Ventures Tech Buyout, Lp	10 percent owner	30 HOTALING PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Fp Credit Partners Phoenix Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DR, BUILDING C - STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Fp Credit Partners Gp Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DR, BUILDING C - STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Fp Credit Partners Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DR, BUILDING C - STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Fp Credit Partners Gp Ii Management, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DR, BUILDING C - STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Iv Tech Buyout Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1950 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 350, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Arrowhead Holdings, Llc / New	10 percent owner	1950 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 350, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Hggc Pathfinder Holdings I, Llc	10 percent owner	1950 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 350, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Pathfinder Acquisition Llc	10 percent owner	1950 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Chung David H S	director	10900 NE 8TH STREET, SUITE 800, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Eric Salzman	director	C/O 8X8 INC., 675 CREEKSIDE WAY, CAMPCALL CA 95008
Wen Hsuan Hsieh	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803