McEwen Mining (McEwen Mining) Predictability Rank

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What is McEwen Mining Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

McEwen Mining Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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McEwen Mining (McEwen Mining) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » McEwen Mining Inc (NYSE:MUX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

US8:Germany US8:Germany MUX:Canada MUX:Austria

Address

150 King Street West, Suite 2800, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5H 1J9

Website

https://www.mcewenmining.com

McEwen Mining Inc is a mining and minerals production and exploration company focused on precious and base minerals in Argentina, Mexico, and the United States. The company's overall revenue is principally derived from the production of gold and silver. The company owns and operates the wholly-owned El Gallo 1 mine in Mexico, and has a minority shareholding in the company that operates the San Jose mine in Argentina. More than half the company's gold output is produced by the El Gallo 1 mine. The remaining gold production, and the majority of silver production, is produced by the San Jose mine. Geographically, the majority is from Canada.

Executives

Michelle Makori	director	C/O MCEWEN MINING INC., 150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO A6 A6 M5H 1J9
Ian J Ball	officer: Vice President, Mexico	99 GEORGE STREET, THIRD FLOOR, TORONTO A6 M5A 2N4
G. Peter Mah	officer: Chief Operating Officer	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Merri Sanchez	director	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO, ONTARIO Z4 M5H 1J9
William M Shaver	director	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO, ONTARIO Z4 M5H 1J9
Anna Man-yue Ladd-kruger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO, ONTARIO Z4 M5H 1J9
Stephen Mcgibbon	officer: EVP of Exploration	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO, ONTARIO Z4 M5H 1J9
Richard W. Brissenden	director	2800-150 KING STREET WEST, P.O. BOX 24, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Merushe Verli	officer: Chief Financial Officer	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Michele L Ashby	director	2800-150 KING STREET WEST, P.O. BOX 24, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Chris Stewart	officer: President and COO	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Allen V Ambrose	director	2800-150 KING STREET WEST, P.O. BOX 24, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Simon Tyler Quick	officer: Vice President - Projects	2800-150 KING STREET WEST, P.O. BOX 24, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Xavier Ochoa	officer: Chief Operating Officer	150 KING ST. WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9
Sylvain Guerard	officer: SVP, Exploration	150 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 2800, TORONTO A6 M5H 1J9