Midland States Bancorp (Midland States Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Midland States Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Midland States Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Midland States Bancorp (Midland States Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Midland States Bancorp Inc (NAS:MSBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6HU:Germany

Address

1201 Network Centre Drive, Effingham, IL, USA, 62401

Website

https://www.midlandsb.com

Midland States Bancorp Inc is a diversified financial holding company. The company provides a full range of commercial and consumer banking products and services, business equipment financing, merchant credit card services, trust and investment management, and insurance and financial planning services. The Banking segment provides a wide range of financial products and services to consumers and businesses, including commercial, commercial real estate, mortgage and other consumer loan products; commercial equipment financing; mortgage loan sales and servicing; letters of credit. etc. The Wealth Management segment consists of trust and fiduciary services, brokerage and retirement planning services. The Other segment includes the operating results of the parent company.

Executives

Donald J. Spring	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Douglas J. Tucker	officer: SVP Corporate Counsel	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Richard Dean Bingham	director	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jeffrey S. Mefford	officer: EVP-Banking, Midland States Bank	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Robert F. Schultz	director	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jeffrey C. Smith	director	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Eric Lemke	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jerry L. Mcdaniel	director	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Sherina M. Edwards	director	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jeffrey A. Brunoehler	officer: SVP Credit - CCO, Midland States Bank	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jeffrey G. Ludwig	officer: EVP & CFO	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jeffrey M Mcdonnell	director	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
John M Schultz	director	MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Leon J Holschbach	director, officer: CEO	C/O MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC., 133 WEST JEFFERSON AVENUE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Stephen A. Erickson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401