MariaDB (MariaDB) Predictability Rank

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What is MariaDB Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MariaDB Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MariaDB (MariaDB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » MariaDB PLC (NYSE:MRDB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

LIDR SOS KPLT SNCR CISO VRAR SKKY AUID APCX JG MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

699 Veterans Boulevard, Redwood, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://www.mariadb.com

MariaDB PLC is a new generation cloud database company whose products are used by companies, reaching over a billion users through Linux distributions, downloaded over a billion times, and used across all types of use cases and industries. It operates as a single segment within the Software-as-a-Service ("SaaS") space. The company operates in EMEA, APAC and America, out of which it generates maximum revenue from America.

Executives

Michael Fanfant	director	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Yakov Zubarev	director	1064 VIA ROBLE, LAFAYETTE CA 94549
Thomas Frederick Siegel	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Paul Augustine O'brien	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Mccarthy Conor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Russell Christine	director	17165 PINE STREET, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Jonathan P. Bakke	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Michael L. Howard	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Roya Shakoori	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Sec'y	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Alexander B. Suh	director	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Franz Aman	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
William T. Sanchez	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Harold R. Berenson	director	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Ingels Jurgen G. A.	director	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Theodore T Wang	director	C/O PUISSANCE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 950 THIRD AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022