Mega Matrix (Mega Matrix) Predictability Rank

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What is Mega Matrix Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mega Matrix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mega Matrix (Mega Matrix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Mega Matrix Corp (AMEX:MPU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3000 El Camino Real, Building 4, Suite 200, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94306

Website

https://www.mtmtgroup.com

Mega Matrix Corp is a holding company. It operates through its two subsidiaries Mega Metaverse Corp (Mega) and JetFleet Management Corp (JMC). The Company has three business segments which are comprised of 1) ETH staking business, 2) the GameFi business, and 3) the leasing of regional aircraft to foreign and domestic regional airlines. The majority of the company's revenue is earned through Leasing business segment.

Executives

Yucheng Hu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	GROUP 7, YANTAI VILLAGE, LAOYE TOWN, YINGSHAN, SICHUAN F4 00000000
Yunheng Zhang	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	3000 EL CAMINO REAL, BLDG 4, STE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Jianan Jiang	director	46886 BLACKBERRY CT, STERLING VA 20164
Siyuan Zhu	director	ROOM 1101, BUILDING 4, NO. 88 SOUTH WUNING RD., JINAN DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 00000000
Qin Yao	director	5A, BUILDING E, NORTH BAONENG TAIGUCHENG, ZHONGXIN ROAD, NANSHAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN, GUANGDONG F4 00000000
Qin Carol Wang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ROOM 403, NO. 7, LANE 173, YANZHONG ROAD, PUDONG NEW DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 00000000
Florence Ng	director, officer: GCO VP	1618 17TH AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94122
David Paul Wilson	director	1440 CHAPIN AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Michael Gerhard Magnusson	officer: President & CEO	1440 CHAPIN AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Harold M Lyons	officer: SVP Finance & CFO	1440 CHAPIN AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Evan M Wallach	director	1440 CHAPIN AVE, STE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Toni M Perazzo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Sr. V.P. Finance, Secty.	1440 CHAPIN AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Karen M Rogge	director	APPLIED MICRO CIRCUITS CORP, 4555 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SUITE 601, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Neal D Crispin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & Chairman	1440 CHAPIN AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Jetfleet Holding Corp.	10 percent owner	1440 CHAPIN AVENUE, SUITE 310, BURLINGAME CA 94010