Micropac Industries (Micropac Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Micropac Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Micropac Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Micropac Industries (Micropac Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Micropac Industries Inc (OTCPK:MPAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

905 East Walnut Street, Garland, TX, USA, 75040

Website

https://www.micropac.com

Micropac Industries Inc manufactures and distributes a range of hybrid microelectronic circuits, solid-state relays (SSRs), power controllers, and optoelectronic components and assemblies. Its products are used as components in a range of military, space, and industrial systems, including aircraft instrumentation and navigation systems, power supplies, electronic controls, computers, medical devices, and high-temperature products. The company's core technology is the packaging and interconnecting of multi-chip microelectronics modules. Other technologies include light-emitting, and light-sensitive materials and products, including light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and silicon phototransistors used in the company's optoelectronic components and assemblies.

Executives

Mark W King	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2905 WYNDHAM LANE, RICHARDSON TX 75082
Richard K Hoesterey	director	7852 LA COSA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75248
Eugene A. Robinson	director	1200 LAKE POINT CIRCLE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
Heinz-werner Hempel	director, 10 percent owner	AM WALL 127 D-281951, BREMEN 2M 00000
Micropac Industries, Inc.	10 percent owner	AM WALL 127 D-281951 1, BREMEN 2M 00000
Patrick Cefalu	officer: CFO	8706 ARBORSIDE, ROWLETT TX 75089
Wood Connie J.	director	877 FM 2948, COMO TX 75431
H. Kent Hearn	director	1409 BRIAR HOLLOW, GARLAND TX 75043

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