Model N (Model N) Predictability Rank

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What is Model N Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Model N Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Model N (Model N) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Model N Inc (NYSE:MODN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2MD:Germany

Address

777 Mariners Island Boulevard, Suite 300, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.modeln.com

Model N Inc is a provider of cloud revenue management solutions for life science and technology companies. The products of the company involve Revenue Cloud for Life Sciences for helps life science companies improve revenue and operational efficiency while adhering to government regulations as it creates and executes contracts with its customers; and Revenue Cloud for High Tech that enables customers to modernize their sales processes by adopting a strategic approach to manage the revenue lifecycle by planned revenue. It has one operating segment with one business activity - developing and monetizing revenue management solutions. A majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, but it has a presence in countries across the world.

Executives

Mark, Albert Anderson,	officer: SVP, Global Services	C/O MODEL N, INC.,1600 SEAPORT BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, PACIFIC SHORES CENTER - BLD.6, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Manisha Shetty Gulati	director	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Kimberly Decarlis	director	3400 BRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 200, REDWOOD SHORES CA 94065
Rehmann Rayani	officer: Chief Strategy & Mktg Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Christopher Lyon	officer: SVP & Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Laura Selig	officer: SVP, Chief People Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Jason Blessing	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Suresh Kannan	officer: SVP & Chief Product Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
John Ederer	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Dave Yarnold	director	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Timothy M Adams	director	311 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Alan S. Henricks	director	MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Dave Michaud	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Cathy A Lewis	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
David Barter	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 1600 SEAPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063