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Mentor Capital (Mentor Capital) Predictability Rank


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What is Mentor Capital Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mentor Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mentor Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mentor Capital (Mentor Capital) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Mentor Capital Inc (OTCPK:MNTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MGHL NHMD NIHK BETSF MGTI CCTL LGHL VTXB SYSX MVCO MS GS SCHW ASX:MQG SHSE:600030 BSP:BPAC3 RJF TW LPLA SHSE:601066
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5964 Campus Court, Plano, TX, USA, 75093
Website
https://www.mentorcapital.com
Mentor Capital Inc acquires and provides liquidity for medical and social use cannabis companies. The company is operating an acquisition and investment business. It operates through two segments namely the historic cannabis and medical marijuana segment, and the Company's legacy investment in WCI, which works with business park owners, governmental centers, and apartment complexes to reduce their facility-related operating costs. The cannabis and medical marijuana segment include the operation of subsidiaries in the Cannabis and medical marijuana sector. Mentor's focus is medical and the company seeks to facilitate the application of cannabis to cancer wasting, calming seizures, and Parkinson's disease, reducing ocular pressures from glaucoma, and blunting chronic pain.
Executives
David G. Carlile director 10901 BULLRUSH DRIVE, VENICE FL 34293
Lori Stansfield officer: Chief Financial Officer 903 N. TOWNER STREET, SANTA ANA CA 92703
Chester Billingsley director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5964 CAMPUS COURT, PLANO TX 75093
Stan Shaul director 2586 CLAYBOURNE COURT, NEWBURY PARK CA 91320
Robert Bernhard Meyer director 24446 CASWELL COURT, LAGUNA NIGUEL CA 92677
Earl Kornbrekke director 458 DEHARO LANE, FRIDAY HARBOR WA 98250
James Blazeck director 536 OVERLOOK DRIVE, PITTSBURG PA 15216