MainStreet Bancshares (MainStreet Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is MainStreet Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MainStreet Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MainStreet Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MainStreet Bancshares (MainStreet Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » MainStreet Bancshares Inc (NAS:MNSB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MNSBP.PFD:USA 5L0:Germany

Address

10089 Fairfax Boulevard, Fairfax, VA, USA, 22030

Website

https://www.mstreetbank.com

MainStreet Bancshares Inc is a bank holding company. It is focused on serving the borrowing, cash management and depository needs of small to medium-sized businesses, and professional practices and retail customers. The bank's products and services include business and consumer checking, premium interest-bearing checking, business account analysis, savings, certificates of deposit and other depository services, as well as a broad array of commercial, real estate and consumer loans.

Executives

Jeff W Dick	director, officer: See Remarks	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Russell Echlov	director	500 E WASHINGTON ST, GREENVILLE SC 29601
Thomas J Chmelik	director, officer: See Remarks	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Richard Alexander Vari	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	10089, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Charles C. Brockett	director, officer: President	8245 BOONE BOULEVARD, TYSONS CORNER VA 22182
Rafael E Deleon	director	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Abdulhamid Hersiburane	officer: President	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Patsy I Rust	director	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Terry M Saeger	director	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Elizabeth S Bennett	director	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Darrell Green	director	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Paul Thomas Haddock	director	10089 FAIRFAX BOULEVARD, FAIRFAX VA 22030