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MMEX Resources (MMEX Resources) Predictability Rank


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What is MMEX Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MMEX Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MMEX Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MMEX Resources (MMEX Resources) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » MMEX Resources Corp (OTCPK:MMEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BBLS AMNI VBHI SPOWF DBRM WTXR GSPE FECOF ALTX ROYL COP HKSE:00883 EOG TSX:CNQ PXD OXY MIC:NVTK HES ASX:WDS DVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3600 Dickinson, Fort Stockton, TX, USA, 78735
Website
https://www.mmexresources.com
MMEX Resources Corp is a resource development company. Principally, it is engaged in the exploration, extraction, refining, and distribution of oil, gas, petroleum products and electric power projects in Texas, Peru, and other countries in Latin America. The company intends to build crude oil refining facilities in the Permian Basin in West Texas. It also focuses on operations of around 10,000 BPD distillation units that will produce a non-transportation grade diesel for sale in the local market for drilling frac fluids, along with naphtha and residual fuel oil to be sold to other refiners.
Executives
Nabil Katabi 10 percent owner 3616 FAR WEST BLVD., #117, AUSTIN TX 78731
Jack Walton Hanks director, officer: President, CEO 3616 FAR WEST BLVD #117-321, AUSTIN TX 78731
Bruce Lemons director 7 NORTHRIDGE LANE, SANDY UT 84092
Matthew K Szot officer: Chief Financial Officer 802 NORTH DOUTY STREET, HANFORD CA 93230
Tydus Richards director, officer: Chairman of the Board 23 CORPORATE PLAZA, SUITE 280, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Baugues John Paul Jr director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 3203 THIRD AVE NORTH, BILLINGS MN 59101