Mesa Laboratories (Mesa Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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What is Mesa Laboratories Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mesa Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mesa Laboratories (Mesa Laboratories) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Mesa Laboratories Inc (NAS:MLAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MLI:Germany

Address

12100 West Sixth Avenue, Lakewood, CO, USA, 80228

Website

https://www.mesalabs.com

Mesa Laboratories Inc manufactures life sciences tools and critical quality control products. It operates in 4 divisions: Sterilization and Disinfection Control, which manufactures and sells biological, cleaning, and chemical indicators. It also provides testing and laboratory services, mainly to the dental industry; Biopharmaceutical Development segment develops, manufactures, and sells automated systems for protein analysis (immunoassays) and peptide synthesis solutions; Calibration Solutions division develops, manufactures, and sells quality control and calibration products used to measure or calibrate temperature, pressure, pH, humidity, and other such parameters for health and safety purposes; and Clinical Genomics. Its geographical segments include United States and Foreign.

Executives

Brian David Archbold	officer: SVP of Continuous Improvement	12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
John Bradley Schmieder	director	C/O MESA LABORATORIES, INC., 12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Gary M Owens	officer: COO	12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
John V Sakys	officer: VP Finance, CFO	MESA LABORATORIES, INC., 12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Shannon Hall	director	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Evan Guillemin	director	380 LAFAYETTE STREET, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
R Tony Tripeny	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Gregory Dinoia	officer: SVP Commercial Operations	12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Mesa Laboratories Inc /co/	director	12100 W 6TH AVE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
John James Sullivan	officer: VP Sales & Marketing	12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
David M Kelly	director
Shiraz Shabanali Ladiwala	director	C/O THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC., 168 THIRD AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Robert V Dwyer	director	12100 W 6TH AVE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Jennifer Sadie Alltoft	director	12100 W. 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
David Brian Perez	director	12100 6TH AVENUE, LAKEWOOD CO 80228