Milestone Pharmaceuticals (Milestone Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Milestone Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Milestone Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Milestone Pharmaceuticals (Milestone Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Milestone Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:MIST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1111 Dr. Frederik-Philips Boulevard, Suite 420, Montreal, QC, CAN, H4M 2X6

Website

https://www.milestonepharma.com

Milestone Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing and commercializing etripamil for the treatment of cardiovascular indications. Etripamil is a calcium channel blocker developed as a rapid-onset nasal spray to be administered by the patient to terminate episodes of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia, or PSVT.

Executives

Fischer Seth H.z.	director	C/O TRIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David Bharucha	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MILESTONE PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1111 DR. FREDERIK-PHILIPS BLVD., STE 420, MONTREAL A8 H4M 2X6
Debra K. Liebert	director	C/O MILESTONE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1111 DR. FREDERIK-PHILIPS BLVD, STE 420, MONTR?AL A8 H4M 2X6
Richard C Pasternak	director	C/O MILESTONE PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1111 DR. FREDERIK-PHILIPS BLVD, STE 420, MONTREAL A8 H4M2X6
Michael John Tomsicek	director	28 OVERLOOK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Robert James Wills	director	175 TOYOTA PLAZA, 7TH FLOOR, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Roderick Wong	10 percent owner	C/O RTW INVESTMENTS, LP, 40 10TH AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Rtw Investments, Lp	10 percent owner	40 10TH AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Jeffrey Edward Nelson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MILESTONE PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1111 DR. FREDERIK-PHILIPS BLVD., STE 420, MONTREAL A8 H4M 2X6
Paul F Truex	director	PENINSULA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1751 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Lisa M. Giles	director	DURATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 2550, CHICAGO IL 60606
Fonds De Solidarite Des Travailleurs Du Quebec	10 percent owner	545 CREMAZIE BLVD. EAST, SUITE 200, MONTREAL A8 H2M 2W4
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner, other: SEE REMARKS	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Amit Hasija	officer: CFO & EVP of Corp. Development	C/O MILESTONE PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1111 DR. FREDERIK-PHILIPS BLVD, STE 420, MONTREAL A8 H4M 2X6
Lorenz Muller	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O MILESTONE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1111 DR. FREDERIK-PHILIPS BLVD., STE 420, MONTREAL A8 H4M 2X6