Meredith (Meredith) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1965. Start your Free Trial

What is Meredith Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Meredith Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Meredith Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Meredith's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Meredith (Meredith) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Meredith Corp (NYSE:MDP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1716 Locust Street, Des Moines, IA, USA, 50309-3023

Website

https://www.meredith.com

Meredith Corp is an American media company that focuses on publications and marketing services around the home, family, food, and lifestyle markets. The company operates two divisions: national media and local media. The national media segment publishes magazines such as Every Day with Rachael Ray, Better Homes and Gardens, Family Fun, and Parents; this segment is the source of the majority of Meredith's revenue. The local media segment owns over 15 television stations around the United States. In 2014, the company announced a 10-year licensing agreement with Martha Stewart Omnimedia to acquire the rights to Martha Stewart Living, Martha Stewart Weddings, and marthastewart.com.

Executives

John S Zieser	officer: Chief Development Officer	1716 LOCUST STREET, LS 101-A; ATTN TERESA T. RINKER, DES MOINES IA 50309-3023
Steven M Cappaert	officer: Corporate Controller
Thomas H Harty	director, officer: President and CEO	MEREDITH CORPORATION 1716 LOCUST ST., MAIL STOP LS101-A DES MOINES IA 50309
Patrick Mccreery	officer: President-Local Media Group	C/O MEREDITH CORP 1716 LOCUST STREET DES MOINES IA 50309
Jason M. Frierott	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS HOLDINGS INC. 901 MAIN AVENUE NORWALK CT 06851
Gregory Coleman	director	C/O MEREDITH CORP., 1716 LOCUST STREET, DES MOINES IA 50309
Donald C Berg	director	PO BOX 1080, LOUISVILLE KY 40201
Stephen M Lacy	director	1716 LOCUST STREET, LS 101-A; ATTN TERESA T. RINKER, DES MOINES IA 50309-3023
Beth J Kaplan	director	1716 LOCUST STREET, DES MOINES IA 50309
Joseph H Ceryanec	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 3177 CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52406-3177
Meredith Edwin T Iv	10 percent owner
Elizabeth E Tallett	director	6705 ROCKLEDGE DR, SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 20817
Iii Chris Roberts	director	1716 LOCUST ST. LS-175, 7TH FLOOR, DES MOINES IA 50309
Paula Kerger	director	C/O MEREDITH CORP 1716 LOCUST STREET DES MOINES IA 50309
Donald A Baer	director	1716 LOCUST STREET DES MOINES IA 50309