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MDB Capital Holdings LLC (MDB Capital Holdings LLC) Predictability Rank


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What is MDB Capital Holdings LLC Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MDB Capital Holdings LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MDB Capital Holdings LLC Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MDB Capital Holdings LLC (MDB Capital Holdings LLC) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » MDB Capital Holdings LLC (NAS:MDBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CURN CRKRD HGBL SIEB SRL TOP MATH MFH GREE BTM MS GS SCHW SHSE:600030 ASX:MQG BSP:BPAC3 SHSE:601066 RJF TW SHSE:601688
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
14135 Midway Road, Suite G-150, Addison, TX, USA, 75001
Website
https://www.mdb.com
MDB Capital Holdings LLC is an investment holding company which operates through its subsidiaries focuses on early- stage technology companies through public offerings. The company's purpose is to engage with companies holding visionary technology, inventors, and technology entrepreneurs. The Company operates in two reportable segments: a broker dealer & intellectual property service and technology development.
Executives
Christopher A Marlett director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 100 WILSHIRE BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Anthony Digiandomenico director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief of Transactions 3600 GREEN COURT, SUITE 350, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Matthew Hayden director 9734 ANCHOR DRIVE, LONGS SC 29568
Jeremy William James officer: Chief Accounting Officer 4785 GLEN HEATHER DRIVE, FRISCO TX 75034
Sean James Magennis director 5109 W. PURDUE AVE, DALLAS TX 75209
Mohammad Hayat director, officer: Chief Entrepreneurship & Ops 750 ROYAL OAKS DRIVE,, SUITE 106, MONROVIA CA 91016
George Hugh Brandon director, officer: President 859 SOUTHERN SHORE DR, PEACHTREE CITY GA 30269
Susanne Meline director P.O. BOX 515381, #86506, LOS ANGELES CA 90051