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Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd (Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd) Predictability Rank


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What is Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd (Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd (NYSE:MCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PZC NNY ENX PIM BGX MPV EHI HYB IDE MRCC BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
550 Science Drive, Madison, WI, USA, 53711
Website
https://www.madisonfunds.com
Madison Covrd Call & Eqt Strtg Fd is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The primary objective is to provide a high level of current income and current gains. Its secondary objective is to achieve long-term capital appreciation. The fund seeks to achieve its objectives by investing primarily in large and mid-capitalization common stocks. Its portfolio of investments consists of different sectors investment such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, industrials, information technology, materials, real estate, utilities, exchange-traded funds, U.S. government and agency obligations, and money market funds.
Executives
Jill M Friedow director 550 SCIENCE DR, MADISON WI 53711
Imhoff James R Jr other: Former Director 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Scott C Jones director C/O XA INVESTMENTS, 1290 BROADWAY STE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Patrick F Ryan officer: President MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Steven J Fredricks officer: CCO MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Richard E Struthers director 2340 WEST COUNTY ROAD C, SAINT PAUL MN 55113-2528
Kevin S Thompson officer: Chief Legal Officer MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
George W Karpus 10 percent owner
Karpus Management, Inc. 10 percent owner 183 SULLY'S TRAIL, PITTSFORD NY 14534
Steven Paul Riege director 11613 N LAFAYETTE PLACE, MEQUON WI 53092
Lisa R Lange officer: CCO MADISON ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Pamela Marie Krill officer: CLO and General Counsel 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53562
Holly S Baggot officer: Secretary and Asst Treasurer 550 SCIENCE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53711
Paul Anthony Lefurgey officer: Vice President 1817 AUTUMN HILL DRIVE, VERONA WI 53593
Wayne Richard Mason officer: CCO 2002 E PALMAIRE AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85020