Lightwave Logic (Lightwave Logic) Predictability Rank

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What is Lightwave Logic Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lightwave Logic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lightwave Logic (Lightwave Logic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Lightwave Logic Inc (NAS:LWLG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

369 Inverness Parkway, Suite 350, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112

Website

https://www.lightwavelogic.com

Lightwave Logic Inc is a United States-based development stage company moving toward commercialization of next-generation electro-optic photonic devices made on its P2IC technology platform which uses in-house proprietary high-activity and high-stability organic polymers. Electro-optical devices convert data from electric signals into optical signals for multiple applications. It designs and synthesizes organic chromophores for use in its own proprietary electro-optic polymer systems and photonic device designs.

Executives

Frederick J Leonberger	director	C/O RF MICRO DEVICES, INC., 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD, GREENSBORO NC 27409
Ronald A Bucchi	director	C/O FIRST CONNECTICUT BANCORP, INC., ONE FARM GLEN BOULEVARD, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Laila Partridge	director	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Siraj Nour El-ahmadi	director	4331 WOODCREST LANE, DALLAS TX 75206
Michael Stephen Lebby	director	680 MISSION STREET, 24F, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Craig Ciesla	director	369 INVERNESS PARKWAY, SUITE 350, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Thomas Edward Zelibor	director	1831 LEFTHAND CIRCLE, SUITE C, LONGMONT CO 80501
George Lauro	director	110 KENSINGTON DRIVE, SARATOGA CA 02021
Louis Charles Glasgow	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1693 YARDLEY DRIVE, WEST CHESTER PA 19380
Joseph A Miller	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLZ, CORNING NY 14831
Goetz Frederick J Jr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	121 CONTINENTAL DRIVE, SUITE 110, NEWARK DE 19713
Phillips W Smith	director, officer: Chair of Board of Directors	7860 EAST MCCLAIN DRIVE, SUITE 2, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260-1627
Thomas P Smith	director	7860 EAST MCCLAIN DRIVE SUITE E, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260-1627
James S. Marcelli	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1831 LEFTHAND CIRCLE, SUITE C, LONGMONT CO 80501
Ross W. Fasick	director	121 CONTINENTAL DRIVE, SUITE 110, NEWARK DE 19713