What is LifePoint Health Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
LifePoint Health Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
LifePoint Health (LifePoint Health) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
LifePoint Health owns and operates community hospitals, regional health systems, physician practices, outpatient centers, and post-acute facilities in the United States. The firm primarily generates revenue through hospital services offered at its facilities. These services include general surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, rehabilitation services, and pediatric services. LifePoint receives the majority of its revenue from health maintenance organizations (HMOs), preferred provider organizations (PPOs), and other private insurers. It receives the next largest proportion of revenue from Medicare and Medicaid.
Executives
| Kermit R Crawford |
director |
200 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
| Jana R Schreuder |
director |
50 S LA SALLE ST, CHICAGO IL 60675 |
| Reed Vaughn Tuckson |
director |
C/O UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED, 9900 BREN ROAD EAST, MINNETONKA MN 55123 |
| Michael P Haley |
director |
200 NORTH HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260 |
| Marguerite Sallee |
director |
C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC, 200 TALCOTT AVENUE SOUTH, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Carpenter William F Iii |
director, officer: Chairman and CEO |
C/O FB FINANCIAL CORP, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201 |
| Maupin John E Jr D D S |
director |
103 POWELL COURT SUITE 200, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Paul D Gilbert |
officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer |
103 POWELL COURT, SUITE 200, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Gregory T. Bier |
director |
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION, P.O. BOX 145496, CINCINNATI OH 45250-5496 |
| Marilyn B Tavenner |
director |
13600 BUTLERS ROAD, AMELIA COURT HOUSE VA 23002 |
| Jeffrey Scott Sherman |
officer: EVP and CFO |
103 POWELL COURT, SUITE 200, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Gary D Willis |
officer: SVP,Chief Accounting Officer |
3854 AMERICAN WAY, SUITE A, BATON ROUGE LA 70816 |
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