Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
LinnCo LLC Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LinnCo LLC's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
LinnCo LLC is a Delaware limited liability company formed on April 30, 2012, under the Delaware Limited Liability Company Act. The Company owns interests in Linn Energy, LLC. It had no significant assets or operations other than those related to its interest in LINN Energy. LINN Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company. Its properties, including those acquired in the Berry acquisition, are located in seven operating regions in the U.S. are Rockies, which includes properties located in Wyoming (Green River Basin and Powder River Basin), Utah (Uinta Basin), North Dakota (Williston Basin) and Colorado (Piceance Basin); Mid-Continent, which includes properties in Oklahoma, Louisiana and the eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle (including the Granite Wash and Cleveland horizontal plays); Hugoton Basin, which includes properties located in Kansas and the Shallow Texas Panhandle; California, which includes the San Joaquin Valley Basin and the Los Angeles Basin; Permian Basin, which includes areas in west Texas and southeast New Mexico; Michigan/Illinois, which includes the Antrim Shale formation in the northern part of Michigan and oil properties in southern Illinois; and East Texas, which includes properties located in east Texas.
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