Lincoln National (Lincoln National) Predictability Rank

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What is Lincoln National Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lincoln National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lincoln National (Lincoln National) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Lincoln National Corp (NYSE:LNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LCO:Germany LCO:Germany

Address

150 North Radnor-Chester Road, Suite A305, Radnor, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.lfg.com

Lincoln National Corp operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses. The company's operating segment includes Annuities; Retirement Plan Services; Life Insurance and Group Protection. Its products primarily include fixed and indexed annuities, variable annuities, universal life insurance (UL), variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL, indexed universal life insurance (IUL), term life insurance, employer-sponsored retirement plans and services, and group life, disability and dental.

Executives

Owen Ryan	director	C/O BLACKLINE INC, 21300 VICTORY BOULEVARD 12TH FLOOR, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Andrew Rallis	officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Sean Woodroffe	officer: EVP, Ch Ppl Culture Comms Off	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
John Christopher Kennedy	officer: EVP, President LFD	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Deirdre P Connelly	director	C/O GLAXOSMITHKLINE, FIVE CRESCENT DRIVE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112-1001
James Waltman Reid	officer: EVP Head of Wrkplc Solutions	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Matthew Grove	officer: EVP Head of Life Annuities LFN	150 N RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Dennis R Glass	officer: President & COO	LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION, 150 N. RADNOR CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Christopher M Neczypor	officer: EVP, Chief Strategy Officer	150 N RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Jayson R Bronchetti	officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer	150 N RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Adam M Cohen	officer: CAO	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Randal J Freitag	officer: EVP & CFO	LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION, 150 N. RADNOR CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Janet Liang	director	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Dale Lefebvre	director	150 N. RADNOR-CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Kenneth S. Solon	officer: EVP & Chief Information Ofc..	150 N. RADNOR CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087