Lemonade (Lemonade) Predictability Rank

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What is Lemonade Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lemonade Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lemonade (Lemonade) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Lemonade Inc (NYSE:LMND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LMND:Mexico LE0:Germany

Address

5 Crosby Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10013

Website

https://www.lemonade.com

Lemonade Inc operates in the insurance industry. The company offers digital and artificial intelligence based platform for various insurances and for settling claims and paying premiums. The platform ensures transparency in issuing policies and settling disputes. Geographically, it operates in California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, Washington, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia and others.

Executives

John Sheldon Peters	officer: Chief Insurance Officer	C/O LEMONADE, INC., 5 CROSBY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Timothy E Bixby	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Alex Clavel	10 percent owner	PO BOX 1093, BOUNDARY HALL, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Michael A Eisenberg	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SHOPPING.COM, 8000 MARINA BLVD. 5TH FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005
Adina Eckstein	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O LEMONADE, INC., 5 CROSBY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Irina Novoselsky	director	C/O LEMONADE, INC., 5 CROSBY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Silvija Martincevic	director	C/O AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC., 650 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Becker Caryn Seidman	director	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jorge Espinel	officer: CBDO	C/O LEMONADE, INC., 5 CROSBY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
George Thompson Hutton	director	C/O WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP, LTD, 80 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Joel E Cutler	director	C/O GENERAL CATALYST PARTNERS, 20 UNIVERSITY ROAD, SUITE 450, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Daniel A. Schreiber	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Founder & CEO	C/O LEMONADE, INC., 5 CROSBY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Shai Wininger	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O LEMONADE, INC., 5 CROSBY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Haim Sadger	director	C/O SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital Israel Venture V Principals Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025