What is Live Ventures Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Live Ventures Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Live Ventures (Live Ventures) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
325 East Warm Springs Road, Suite 102, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89119
Live Ventures Inc is a holding company for diversified businesses. It is focused on acquiring and operating profitable companies in various industries. The company operates in the business segments of Retail, which includes direct sales of entertainment and appliance products and services, Flooring Manufacturing, Steel Manufacturing, which includes the sale of steel plates, ground flat stock, and drill rods, and Corporate and Other. It derives key revenue from the Flooring Manufacturing segment which includes the manufacturing of carpets and rugs, yarn products, as well as a reseller of hard surface flooring products. Geographically the activities are carried out throughout the United States.
Executives
| John Isaac |
director, 10 percent owner |
501 W. BROADWAY, SUITE A212, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 |
| Dennis Gao |
director |
325 E. WARM SPRINGS ROAD, SUITE 102, LAS VEGAS NV 89119 |
| David Lee Verret |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
5900 COPPER CANYON DR., THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| Michael Jason Stein |
officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel |
325 E WARM SPRINGS ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119 |
| Rodney Dale Spriggs |
officer: CEO, Vintage Stock, Inc. |
3703 RED FOX RUN, JOPLIN MO 64804 |
| Eric Adam Althofer |
officer: COO |
7707 DEERFIELD MANOR DR, CHARLOTTE NC 28270 |
| Thomas Robert Sedlak |
officer: CEO Precision Industries, Inc. |
87 PORTER HILL ROAD, WASHINGTON PA 15301 |
| Godfrey Weston A Jr |
officer: CEO, Marquis Industries, Inc. |
PO BOX 1308, CHATSWORTH GA 30705 |
| Virland A Johnson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
20488 N 86 LANE, PEORIA AZ 85382 |
| Richard Butler |
director |
4840 EAST JASMINE ST., SUITE 105, MESA AZ 85205 |
| Tyler Sickmeyer |
director |
1440 HOTEL CIRCLE NORTH, #423, SAN DIEGO CA 92108 |
| Isaac Capital Group, Llc |
10 percent owner |
501 W. BROADWAY, #A212, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 |
| Clarke Thomas J Jr |
director |
11534 VILLA VASARI, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33418 |
| Antonios Isaac |
director |
3525 DEL MAR HEIGHTS RD., #765, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| John Kocmur |
director, 10 percent owner |
2490 EAST SUNSET ROAD, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89120 |
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