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Lime Energy Co (Lime Energy Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Lime Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lime Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Lime Energy Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lime Energy Co (Lime Energy Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Lime Energy Co (OTCPK:LIME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XKRX:065680 XKRX:032790 TPE:6205 SHSE:600747 XKRX:066900 ROCO:6126 ROCO:3689 HKSE:01480 XKRX:036010 WAR:XTP ROCO:4909 XKRX:027040 TSE:6919 ROCO:6210 ROCO:3168 ROCO:5315 ROCO:3202 SGX:AVV TSE:3321 XKRX:053450
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.lime-energy.com
Lime Energy Co is a U.S based company which offers the utilities energy efficiency program delivery services targeted to their small and medium-sized business customers. Its programs help these businesses use less energy through the upgrade of existing equipment with new, more energy efficient equipment. These programs include energy efficient lighting upgrades, mechanical upgrades, water conservation measures, building controls, refrigeration, pool pumps, building shell improvements and appliance recycling.
Executives
Gregory T Barnum director
Adam C Procell officer: CEO and Presirent C/O WILLDAN, 12401 EAST KATELLA AVENUE, SUITE 300, ANAHEIM CA 92806
Carey William Russell Jr director 2202 NORTH WEST SHORE BLVD, 5TH FLOOR, TAMPA FL 33607
Robert J Manning director 1201 THIRD AVE, STE 4900, SEATTLE WA 98101
Robert D Wagner director COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Cit Group Inc 10 percent owner 1 CIT DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Frederic F Brace director 707 W. SMUGGLER ST, ASPEN CO 81611
Stanley Morgan 10 percent owner 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036

Lime Energy Co (Lime Energy Co) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Lime Energy Co. (LIME) CFO Jeffrey Mistarz buys 2,500 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 12-17-2010

Lime Energy Co. (LIME) CFO Jeffrey Mistarz buys 2,500 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 09-16-2010