LaSalle Hotel Properties (LaSalle Hotel Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is LaSalle Hotel Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LaSalle Hotel Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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LaSalle Hotel Properties (LaSalle Hotel Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE:LHOpJ.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.lasallehotels.com

LaSalle Hotel Properties is a real estate investment trust that primarily buys, owns, redevelops, and leases upscale and luxury full-service hotels. These hotels are located in convention, resort, and major urban business markets in certain states across the United States. The primary urban markets include Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, DC. The company's assets are held by and managed through LaSalle Hotel Operating Partnership, L.P. The firm is the sole general partner of the operating partnership. The company derives its income from its hotel operating revenue, its only segment.

Executives

Jeffrey L Martin	director	7550 WISCONSIN AVE, 10TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Kenneth G Fuller	officer: EVP, CFO, Secretary, Treasurer	7550 WISCONSIN AVE, 10TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Denise M Coll	director	3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Jeffrey T. Foland	director	P.O. BOX 66100 - HDQLD, CHICAGO IL 60666
Bruce A Riggins	officer: CFO, EVP and Secretary	7550 WISCONSIN AVE, 10TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Alfred L. Young	officer: EVP and COO	3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Julio E Morales	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1000, BETHESDA MD 20814
Jon E Bortz	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE 1100, BETHESDA MD 20814
Donald A Washburn	director	222 SW HARRISON STREET, APT 23C, PORTLAND OR 97201
Leonard Darryl Hartley	director	PGI, 44 CANAL CENTER PLAZA SECOND FL, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Stuart L Scott	director	JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED, 200 E RANDOLPH DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
William S Mccalmont	director	3300 DREXEL, DALLAS TX 75205
Michael D Barnello	officer: Chief Operating Officer	LASALLE HOTEL PROPERTIES, 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE STE M25, BETHESDA MD 20814
Donald S Perkins	director	1319 MARQUETTE DR, ROMEOVILLE IL 60441
Kelly L Kuhn	director	84 INVERNESS CIRCLE EAST, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112