Lexaria Bioscience (Lexaria Bioscience) Predictability Rank

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What is Lexaria Bioscience Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lexaria Bioscience Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lexaria Bioscience (Lexaria Bioscience) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Lexaria Bioscience Corp (NAS:LEXX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

740 McCurdy Road, Suite 100, Kelowna, BC, CAN, V1X 2P7

Website

https://www.lexariabioscience.com

Lexaria Bioscience Corp's patented drug delivery technology, DehydraTECH improves the way active pharmaceutical ingredients enter the bloodstream by promoting more effective oral delivery. DehydraTECH has the ability to increase bio-absorption with cannabinoids and nicotine by 5-10x and, in some instances with cannabinoids by as much as 27x compared to standard industry formulations, reduce the time of onset from 1-2 hours to minutes, and mask unwanted tastes. DehydraTECH has also evidenced an ability to deliver some drugs more effectively across the blood brain barrier. The Company has four reportable segments: Intellectual Property Licensing, B2B Production, Research and Development and Corporate. It earns maximum revenue from Intellectual Property Licensing.

Executives

Catherine C. Turkel	director	19900 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 550, IRVINE CA 92612
Gregory Downey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100 - 740 MCCURDY ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1X 2P7
Christopher Bunka	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	1924 BIRKDALE AVE, KELOWNA A1 V1P1R7
Vanessa Carle	officer: Secretary	100 - 740 MCCURDY ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1X 2P7
Reese Albert L Jr	director
Brian W. Quigley	director	100 740 MCCURDY ROAD, KELOWNA A1 23230
William Edward Mckechnie	director	305 MARGARET AVENUE, KITCHENER A6 N2H 6S4
Allan Horst Spissinger	officer: CFO	8131 198A STREET, LANGLEY A1 V2Y 1Y6
John Martin Docherty	director, 10 percent owner	23 MIKELEN DRIVE, PORT PERRY A6 L9L 1V1
Baljinder Bhullar	director, officer: CFO	604 - 700 WEST PENDER, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Nicholas W Baxter	director	220 SPRINGFIELD ROAD, ABERDEEN, ABERDEENSHIRE, SCOTLAND X0 AB15 6AU
Dustin Arthur Elford	director	888 - 609 WEST HASTINGS STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B 4W4
Thomas James Ihrke	officer: Sr. VP, Business Development	38 KRIER LANE, MOUNT PLEASANT SC 29464
David Demartini	director, 10 percent owner	11714 SPRIGGS WAY, HOUSTON TX 77024
Leonard Macmillan	director, officer: Vice President - Corp Develop	SUITE 302, 125A - 1030 DENMAN STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6G 2M6