Landmark Bancorp (Landmark Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Landmark Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Landmark Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Landmark Bancorp (Landmark Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Landmark Bancorp Inc (NAS:LARK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

701 Poyntz Avenue, Manhattan, KS, USA, 66502

Website

https://www.banklandmark.com

Landmark Bancorp Inc is the bank holding company for Landmark National Bank, which is dedicated to providing quality financial and banking services. The bank is principally engaged in the business of attracting deposits from the general public and using such deposits, together with borrowings and other funds, to originate one-to-four-family residential real estate, construction and land, commercial real estate, commercial, agriculture, municipal and consumer loans. In addition, it also invests in certain investment and mortgage-related securities using deposits and other borrowings as funding sources. Its primary deposit gathering and lending markets are geographically diversified with locations in central, eastern, southeast, and southwest Kansas.

Executives

Richard Ball	director	2006 BROADWAY, SUITE D, GREAT BEND KS 67530
Mark A Herpich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	701 POYNTZ AVENUE, MANHATTAN KS 66052
Michael E Scheopner	officer: Executive Vice President	6701 SW HAMPTONSHIRE LANE, TOPEKA KS 66614-4464
Jim Lewis	director	800 POYNTZ AVE, MANHATTAN KS 66502
Angela S. Hurt	director	701 POYNTZ AVENUE, MANHATTAN KS 66502
Angelia K. Stanland	director	701 POYNTZ AVENUE, MANHATTAN KS 66502
Sandra J Moll	director	P.O. BOX 402, PAOLA KS 66071
Wayne R Sloan	director	1044 BRIANNA CT, MANHATTAN KS 66503
Patrick L Alexander	director, officer: President & CEO	2004 E. 175TH RD, LECOMPTON KS 66050
Mark J Oliphant	officer: Market President	800 POYNTZ AVE, MANHATTAN KS 66502
Sarah Hill-nelson	director	1311 WEST 8TH STREET, LAWRENCE KS 66044
Bradly L. Chindamo	officer: Market President	902 APRIL RAIN RD, LAWRENCE KS 66049
Larry R Heyka	officer: Market President	701 POYNTZ AVENUE, MANHATTAN KS 66502
Dean R Thibault	officer: Market President	800 POYNTZ AVENUE, MANHATTAN KS 66052
C Duane Ross	director	800 POYNTZ AVE, MANHATTAN KS 66502