Kindred Healthcare (Kindred Healthcare) Predictability Rank

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What is Kindred Healthcare Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kindred Healthcare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kindred Healthcare (Kindred Healthcare) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Kindred Healthcare Inc (NYSE:KND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.kindredhealthcare.com

Kindred Healthcare Inc is a healthcare-services company in the United States that operates in four divisions: hospitals, Kindred at Home, Kindred Rehabilitation Services, and nursing centers. The hospital division provides long-term acute-care services through a network of transitional-care hospitals. The Kindred at Home division provides home health and hospice care for patients in their homes, nursing centers, and other residential settings. This segment contributes the majority of the firm's total revenue. The Rehabilitation Services division provides physical and occupational therapy to residents of nursing centers, hospitals, outpatient clinics, and assisted living facilities. Kindred's nursing center division operates nursing centers and assisted-care facilities.

Executives

Heyward R Donigan	director	452 DISCOVERY ROAD, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23451
Phyllis R Yale	director
Paul J Diaz	director	680 SOUTH FOURTH STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Joel Ackerman	director	COVENTRY HEALTH CARE, INC., 6705 ROCKLEDGE DR SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 20817
Richard Goodman	director	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Christopher T Hjelm	director	C/O THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE ST., CINCINNATI OH 45202
Stephen D Farber	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	680 SOUTH FOURTH STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Jonathan David Blum	director	C/O YUM BRANDS INC, 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Lynn T Simon	director	4000 MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Fred J Kleisner	director	C/O MORGANS HOTEL GROUP CO., 475 TENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Sharad Mansukani	director	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Thomas P Cooper	director	PO BOX 3335, SANTA FE CA 92067
John H Short	director	7733 FORSYTH BLVD.,, SUITE 2300, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Edward L Kuntz	director, other: Chairman of the Board
Richard A Lechleiter	officer: Executive VP and CFO	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890