Kala Bio (Kala Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Kala Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kala Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kala Bio (Kala Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kala Bio Inc (NAS:KALA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

27F0:Germany

Address

1167 Massachusetts Avenue, Arlington, MA, USA, 02476

Website

https://www.kalarx.com

Kala Bio Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The company is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to researching, developing, and commercializing innovative therapies for rare and severe eye diseases. KALA's lead product candidate, KPI-012, is a human MSC-S, which contains numerous human-derived biofactors, such as growth factors, protease inhibitors, matrix proteins, and neurotrophic factors that can potentially correct the impaired corneal healing that is an underlying etiology of multiple severe ocular diseases. Its MSC-S platform is for retinal degenerative diseases, such as Retinitis Pigmentosa and Stargardt Disease.

Executives

Todd Bazemore	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O DYAX CORP., 55 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Romulus K Brazzell	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O INSPIRE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4222 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Eric Trachtenberg	officer: See Remarks	1414 RALEIGH ROAD, SUITE 400, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517
Darius Kharabi	officer: CHIEF BUSINESS OFFICER	C/O KALA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 120, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Mark T Iwicki	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	84 WATERFORD DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Mary Reumuth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100 BEAVER STREET, SUITE 201, WALTHAM MA 02453
Marjan Farid	director	C/O KALA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1167 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, ARLINGTON MA 02476
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mark S. Blumenkranz	director	C/O 1LIFE HEALTHCARE, INC., ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Hongming Chen	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	100 BEAVER STREET, SUITE 201, WALTHAM MA 02453
C. Daniel Myers	director	6120 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 290, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Gregory Grunberg	director	100 BEAVER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02453
Rajeev M. Shah	director	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Peter Kolchinsky	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116