Joby Aviation (Joby Aviation) Predictability Rank

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What is Joby Aviation Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Joby Aviation Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Joby Aviation (Joby Aviation) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Joby Aviation Inc (NYSE:JOBY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2155 Delaware Avenue, Suite 225, Santa Cruz, CA, USA, 95060

Website

https://www.jobyaviation.com

Joby Aviation Inc is a transportation company developing an all-electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft which it intends to operate as part of a fast, quiet, and convenient air taxi service.

Executives

Gregory Bowles	officer: Head of Government Affairs	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Didier Papadopoulos	officer: See Remarks	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Eric Allison	officer: Head of Product	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Bonny W Simi	officer: See Remarks	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE 1100, BETHESDA MD 20814
Matthew Field	officer: See Remarks	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Kate Dehoff	officer: See Remarks	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Joeben Bevirt	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Dipender Saluja	director	1730 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Tetsuo Ogawa	director	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 333 ENCINAL ST., SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Michael P Huerta	director	1800 M STREET NW SUITE 800, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Justin Lang	officer: See Remarks	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Paul Cahill Sciarra	director	PO BOX 427344, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94142
Sherry Coutu	other: FORMER DIRECTOR	C/O REINVENT ACQUISITION CORP., 215 PARK AVENUE, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joby Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #225, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
James Kuffner	director	C/O JOBY AVIATION, INC., 2155 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE #255, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060