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Janus International Group (Janus International Group) Predictability Rank


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What is Janus International Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Janus International Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Janus International Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Janus International Group (Janus International Group) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Janus International Group Inc (NYSE:JBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
DOOR JELD PGTI APOG NX ROCK ARLO ASPN TILE GMS TT TSE:6367 CARR JCI XPAR:SGO XSWX:GEBN BLDR LII CSL DUB:KRX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
135 Janus International Boulevard, Temple, GA, USA, 30179
Website
https://www.janusintl.com
Janus International Group Inc is a manufacturer and supplier of turnkey solutions for self-storage, commercial, and industrial building Solutions. The company provides products that include roll-up and swing doors, hallway systems, relocatable storage MASS (Moveable Additional Storage Structures) units, and technologies for automating facility and door operation. The company focuses on two primary markets, providing building solutions to the self-storage industry and the broader commercial industrial market. It is operated through two geographic regions; Janus North America and Janus International.
Executives
Ramey Pierce Jackson director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O JUNIPER HOLDINGS, 14 FAIRMOUNT AVENUE, CHATHAM NJ 07928
Norman V Nettie officer: See Remarks C/O JUNIPER HOLDINGS, 14 FAIRMOUNT AVENUE, CHATHAM NJ 07928
Morgan Hodges officer: Executive Vice President C/O JUNIPER HOLDINGS, 14 FAIRMOUNT AVENUE, CHATHAM NJ 07928
Clearlake Capital Group, L.p. director, 10 percent owner 233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Behdad Eghbali director, 10 percent owner 233 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 850, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
David Vanevenhoven officer: Chief Accounting Officer 135 JANUS INTERNATIONAL BLVD, TEMPLE GA 30179
Elliot Housman Kahler officer: General Counsel 135 JANUS INTERNATIONAL BLVD, TEMPLE GA 30179
Alessandro Araldi officer: See Remarks 135 JANUS INTERNATIONAL BLVD, TEMPLE GA 30179
Rebecca Castillo officer: See Remarks C/O JANUS INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC., 135 JANUS INTERNATIONAL BLVD., TEMPLE GA 30179
Heather Harding director LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC, LUMNS LANE, MANCHESTER X0 M27 8LN
Anselm Wong officer: See Remarks 135 JANUS INTERNATIONAL BLVD., TEMPLE GA 30179
Roger Fradin director C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 75 MAXESS ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Brian Scott Cook director C/O JUNIPER INDUSTRIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 14 FAIRMOUNT AVENUE, CHATHAM NJ 07928
Leonard Colin director 233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Xavier A Gutierrez director 9550 FIRESTONE BOULEVARD, SUITE 105, DOWNEY CA 90241