Janel (JANL) Predictability Rank

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What is Janel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Janel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Janel Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Janel (JANL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Janel Corp (OTCPK:JANL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

80 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10011

Website

https://www.janelcorp.com

Janel Corp is a holding company. The company's operating segments include Logistics Services, Manufacturing, and Life Sciences. The logistics Services segment is a full-service provider of cargo transportation logistics management services, including freight forwarding via air, ocean, and land-based carriers, customs brokerage services, warehousing, and distribution services. The Manufacturing segment is engaged in manufacturing and distributing industrial mixing equipment and apparatus for specific applications within various industries. The Life Sciences segment manufactures and distributes monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies, diagnostic reagents, and other immunoreagents for biomedical research. It generates maximum revenue from the Logistics Services segment.

Executives

Kesteren Gerard Van	director	80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Gregory B Graves	director	129 CONCORD ROAD, BILLERICA MA 01821
Dominique Schulte	10 percent owner	68 BANK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Brendan James Killackey	director	80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Oaxaca Group L.l.c.	10 percent owner	68 BANK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Vincent Verde	officer: CFO	C/O JANEL CORPORATION, 303 MERRICK ROAD, SUITE 400, LYNBROOK NY 11563
Ryan Karen Miller	director	2260 S ADAMS, DENVER CO 80210
John Eidinger	10 percent owner	80 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Gonzalez John Joseph Ii	10 percent owner, officer: SR Managing Director NE Region	7 PARSONS LANDING, ISLIP NY 11751
Gregory J Melsen	director	614 MCKINLEY PLACE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
James N Jannello	10 percent owner	303 MERRICK ROAD - SUITE 200, LYNBROOK NY 11563
Carlos Pla	officer: CFO	303 MERRICK ROAD, SUITE 400, LYNBROOK NY 11563
Brian Aronson	officer: CFO	745 BOULEVARD EAST, WEEHAWKEN NJ 07086
Nicholas V Ferrara	director	303 MERRICK ROAD - SUITE 200, LYNBROOK NY 11563
Philip J Dubato	officer: EVP of Finance	303 MERRICK ROAD - SUITE 200, LYNBROOK NY 11563

Janel (JANL) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Director Kesteren Van Acquires 3,000 Shares of Janel Corp (JANL)

By GuruFocus Research • 02-29-2024