Innovative Designs (Innovative Designs) Predictability Rank

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What is Innovative Designs Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Innovative Designs Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Innovative Designs (Innovative Designs) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Innovative Designs Inc (OTCPK:IVDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

124 Cherry Street, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15223

Website

https://www.idigear.com

Innovative Designs Inc markets cold-weather recreational and industrial clothing products, as well as house wrap, which is made from INSULTEX, a low density foamed polyethylene with buoyancy, scent block and thermal resistant properties. The business activity of the firm is operated through two segments Apparel and Housewrap. The Apparel segment offers a range of cold weather apparel and related items. The Housewrap segment includes its INSULTEX House Wrap and its own seam tape. It generates maximum revenue from the Housewrap segment.

Executives

Robert Kennedy Adams	director	3509 WILLIAM PENN DR., SAN ANTONIO TX 78230
Donald Vincent Garlotta	director	124 CHERRY STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15223
Joseph Riccelli	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215
Dean Kolocouris	director	109 FOX PATH, MOON TWP PA 15108
Daniel P Rains	director	2509 WIEWAN ROAD, ALIQUIPPA PA 15001
Robert D Monsour	director	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215
Innovative Designs Inc	director	124 CHERRY ST., STE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15223
Joseph A Riccelli	officer: Vice President	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215
Dean P Kolocouris	director	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215
Frank Riccelli	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215
Dominic Cerniglia	director	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215
Anthony Fonzi	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	223 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 1, PITTSBURGH PA 15215