What is Invacare Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Invacare Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Invacare (Invacare) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
One Invacare Way, Elyria, OH, USA, 44035-4190
Invacare Corp makes and distributes medical equipment used in non-acute care settings. Its products are primarily sold to home medical equipment providers, residential living operators, distributors, and government health services. The firm sells products in three categories: mobility and seating, lifestyle, and respiratory therapy. Its mobility and seating products include power wheelchairs, custom manual wheelchairs, and positioning cushions. Its lifestyle products include manual wheelchairs, crutches, walkers, and homecare beds. Its respiratory products include stationary and portable oxygen concentrators and non-delivery oxygen technology. Invacare receives the largest proportion of revenue from sales in Europe.
Executives
| Tenor Opportunity Master Fund, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
810 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 1905, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Randel G Owen |
director |
C/O EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES CORP, 6200 SOUTH SYRACUSE WAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Kimberly Herman |
director |
3 HUNTINGTON QUADRANGLE, STE 25, MELVILLE NY 11747 |
| Marec Elden Edgar |
director |
1420 KENSINGTON ROAD, SUITE 220, OAK BROOK IL 60523 |
| Elliot Bossen |
10 percent owner |
3100 TOWER BLVD, UNIVERSITY TOWER STE 1104, DURHAM NC 27707 |
| Silverback Asset Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
1414 RALEIGH ROAD, SUITE 250, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517 |
| Peter J. Kuipers |
director |
590 E. MIDDLEFEILD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Tenor Capital Management Co., L.p. |
10 percent owner |
810 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 1905, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Pm Manager Fund, Spc-segregated Portfolio 33 |
10 percent owner |
190 ELGIN AVE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KYI-9005 |
| Dov Gertzulin |
10 percent owner |
C/O DG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 460 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Dg Capital Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
460 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Endurant Capital Management Lp |
10 percent owner |
66 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 353, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| Abraham T Han |
director |
51 MIDLAND AVENUE, WYCKOFF NJ 07481 |
| Dg Value Partners Ii Master Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
460 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Quang Minh Pham |
10 percent owner |
66 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 353, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
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