IVERIC bio (IVERIC bio) Predictability Rank

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What is IVERIC bio Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IVERIC bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IVERIC bio (IVERIC bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » IVERIC bio Inc (NAS:ISEE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8 Sylvan Way, Parsippany, New Jersey, USA, 07054

Website

https://www.ivericbio.com

IVERIC bio Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of novel treatment options for retinal diseases with significant unmet medical needs. The company is developing both therapeutic product candidates for age-related retinal diseases and gene therapy product candidates for orphan inherited retinal diseases, or IRDs.

Executives

Keith Westby	officer: SVP & COO	ONE UNIVERSITY SQUARE DRIVE, SUITE 280, PRINCETON NJ 08540
David Francis Carroll	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	ONE UNIVERSITY SQUARE DRIVE, SUITE 280, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Glenn Sblendorio	director	3 TIMES SQAURE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Christopher Paul Simms	officer: Senior Vice President, CCO	FIVE PENN PLAZA SUITE 2372, NEW YORK NY 10001
Anthony S Gibney	officer: EVP, Chief Business Officer	C/O ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 300 GEORGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Calvin W. Roberts	director	6120 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 290, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Christine Ann Miller	director	5 PENN PLAZA, SUITE 2372, NEW YORK NY 10001
Pravin Dugel	officer: EVP, Chief Strategy & Business	C/O AERPIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 9987 CARVER ROAD, CINCINNATI OH 45242
David R Guyer	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	ONE PENN PLAZA, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10119
Mark S. Blumenkranz	director	C/O 1LIFE HEALTHCARE, INC., ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Adrienne L Graves	director	125 STONE MOUNTAIN CIRCLE, NAPA CA 94558
Versant Venture Capital Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 3630, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Versant Ventures Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 3630, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Versant Side Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 3630, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Jane Henderson	director	C/O ELEVEN BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142