Samsara (Samsara) Predictability Rank

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What is Samsara Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Samsara Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Samsara (Samsara) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Samsara Inc (NYSE:IOT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

OKTA GDDY GEN DOX FFIV NTNX DBX PATH TOST CFLT MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 De Haro Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.samsara.com

Samsara Inc provides an end-to-end solution for operations: The solution connects physical operations data to the Connected Operations Cloud, which consists of the Data Platform and Application. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Sanjit Biswas	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	350 RHODE ISLAND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SOUTH BUILDING, SAN FRANSCISO CA 94103
John Bicket	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See remarks	350 RHODE ISLAND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SOUTH BUILDING, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Adam Eltoukhy	officer: See remarks	350 RHODE ISLAND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SOUTH BUILDING, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Susan L Bostrom	director
Lara Caimi	officer: President, Worldwide Field Ops	C/O CONFLUENT, INC., 899 W EVELYN AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
James Andrew Munk	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Jonathan Chadwick	director	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Dominic Phillips	officer: See remarks	350 RHODE ISLAND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SOUTH BUILDING, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Andreessen Horowitz Lsv Fund I-b, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ah Parallel Fund Iv-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Marc L Andreessen	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ARNOLD & PORTER LLP, 3 EMBARCADERO CENTER 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Andreessen Horowitz Lsv Fund Iii-b, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreessen Horowitz Fund Iv-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Todd M Bluedorn	director	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Hemant Taneja	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GENERAL CATALYST, 20 UNIVERSITY ROAD, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138