IonQ (IONQ) Predictability Rank

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What is IonQ Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IonQ Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

IonQ Predictability Rank Related Terms

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IonQ (IONQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » IonQ Inc (NYSE:IONQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4505 Campus Drive, College Park, MD, USA, 20740

Website

https://www.ionq.com

IonQ Inc sells access to several quantum computers of various qubit capacities and is in the process of researching and developing technologies for quantum computers with increasing computational capabilities. The company currently makes access to its quantum computers available via cloud platforms and also to select customers via its own cloud service. This cloud-based approach enables the broad availability of quantum-computing-as-a-service (QCaaS). The company derives its revenue from its quantum-computing-as-a-service arrangements, consulting services related to co-developing algorithms on company's quantum computing systems, and contracts associated with the design, development, and construction of specialized quantum computing systems together with related services.

Executives

Rima Alameddine	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O IONQ, INC., 4505 CAMPUS DRIVE, COLLEGE PARK MD 20740
Peter Hume Chapman	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O IONQ, INC., 4505 CAMPUS DRIVE, COLLEGE PARK MD 20740
Jungsang Kim	director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O IONQ, INC., 4505 CAMPUS DRIVE, COLLEGE PARK MD 20740
Thomas G. Kramer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O OPOWER, INC., 1515 NORTH COURTHOUSE ROAD, 8TH FLOOR, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Christopher Monroe	officer: Chief Scientist	C/O IONQ, INC., 4505 CAMPUS DRIVE, COLLEGE PARK MD 20740
Laurie A. Babinski	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O IONQ, INC., 4505 CAMPUS DRIVE, COLLEGE PARK MD 20740
Wendy Thomas	director	C/O SECUREWORKS CORP., ONE CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kathryn K. Chou	director	C/O IONQ, INC., 4505 CAMPUS DRIVE, COLLEGE PARK MD 20740
New Enterprise Associates 15, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Gv 2016 Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW MA 94043
Inder M Singh	director	C/O UNISYS CORPORATION, 801 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, SUITE 100, BLUE BELL PA 19422
Harry L. You	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
2019, L.p. Gv	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gv 2019 Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gv 2019 Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043