Intellinetics (Intellinetics) Predictability Rank

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What is Intellinetics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intellinetics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Intellinetics (Intellinetics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Intellinetics Inc (AMEX:INLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2190 Dividend Drive, Columbus, OH, USA, 43228

Website

https://www.intellinetics.com

Intellinetics Inc is a document service and solutions software company serving both the small-to-medium business and governmental sectors. The company's digital transformation products and services are provided through two reporting segments: Document Management and Document Conversion. The Document Management segment consists primarily of solutions involving software platforms, which allow customers to capture and manage all documents across operations such as scanned hard-copy documents and all digital documents including those from Microsoft Office 365, digital images, audio, video, and emails. The company's Document Conversion offerings aid clients as a part of their overall document strategy to convert documents from one medium to another.

Executives

Paul Seid	director	22 WOODHAVEN DRIVE, NEW CITY NY 10956
Robert Taglich	10 percent owner	700 NEW YORK AVENUE, HUNTINGTON NY 11743
John C Guttilla	director	C/O ORCHIDS PAPER PRODUCTS COMPANY, 4826 HUNT STREET, PRYOR OK 74361
Michael N Taglich	10 percent owner	TAGLICH BROTHERS INC, 1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS --31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 6317254791
William Cooke	director	800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Robert C Schroeder	director	37 MAIN STREET, COLD SPRING HARBOR, NEW YORK NY 11724
James F Desocio	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	380 ST PETER STREET, ST PAUL MN 55102
Joseph D Spain	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2190 DIVIDEND DR., COLUMBUS OH 43228
Roger E. Kahn	director	C/O BRIDGELINE DIGITAL, INC., 80 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Sophie Pibouin	director	4 SAINT JODE COURT, NORTHPORT NY 11768
Murray H Gross	director	2951 KINWEST PARKWAY, IRVING TX 75063
Thomas D Moss	director	2190 DIVIDEND DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228
Matthew L Chretien	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	2190 DIVIDEND DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228
A Michael Chretien	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Secretary and Chairman	2190 DIVIDEND DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228
Ramon M Shealy	other: Former Director*	2190 DIVIDEND DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228