Indie Semiconductor (Indie Semiconductor) Predictability Rank

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What is Indie Semiconductor Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Indie Semiconductor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Indie Semiconductor (Indie Semiconductor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Indie Semiconductor Inc (NAS:INDI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

48H:Germany

Address

32 Journey, Aliso Viejo, CA, USA, 92656

Website

https://www.indiesemi.com

Indie Semiconductor Inc is empowering the Autotech revolution with next-generation automotive semiconductors and software platforms. It focuses on edge sensors for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems including LiDAR, connected car, user experience, and electrification applications. These technologies represent the core underpinnings of both electric and autonomous vehicles, while the advanced user interfaces transform the in-cabin experience to mirror and seamlessly connect to the mobile platforms.

Executives

Thomas Schiller	officer: CFO and EVP of Strategy	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Bal Kanwardev Raja Singh	officer: SVP Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, INC., 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Donald Mcclymont	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Sonalee Elizabeth Parekh	director	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Ichiro Aoki	director, officer: President	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Diane W. Biagianti	director	C/O GLAUKOS CORPORATION, 229 AVENIDA FABRICANTE, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Steven Machuga	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Scott David Kee	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Ellen S Bancroft	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O INDIE SEMICONDUCTOR, 32 JOURNEY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Peter J Kight	director	4411 EAST JONES BRIDGE ROAD, NORCROSS GA 30092
David J Aldrich	director	20 SYLVAN ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Jeffrey J Owens	director	5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Karl-thomas Neumann	director	C/O AEYE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Diane D Brink	director	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
William Woodward	director	ANTHEM VENTURE PARTNERS, 225 ARIZONA AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401