What is Imunon Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Imunon Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Imunon (Imunon) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
997 Lenox Drive, Suite 100, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA, 08648
Imunon Inc is developing new medicines that harness the building blocks of life to work in harmony with the body's immune system. It is a fully integrated, clinical stage biotechnology company focused on advancing a portfolio of innovative treatments that harness the body's natural mechanisms to generate safe, effective, and durable responses across a broad array of human diseases.
Executives
| James E Dentzer |
director |
C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512 |
| Le Goff Corinne |
director, officer: President and CEO |
200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Michael H Tardugno |
officer: Chief Executive Offier |
10220-L OLD COLUMBIA ROAD, COLUMBIA MD 21046-2364 |
| Frederick J. Fritz |
director |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 10220-L OLD COLUMBIA ROAD, COLUMBIA MD 21046 |
| Kardaras Constantine John |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 997 LENOX DRIVE, SUITE100, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648 |
| Christine A Pellizzari |
director |
10 FINDERNE AVENUE, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807 |
| Stacy Lindborg |
director |
C/O BRAINSTORM CELL THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1325 AVENUE OF AMERICAS, 28TH FLR., NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Donald P Braun |
director |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 997 LENOX DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648 |
| Alberto R Martinez |
director |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 997 LENOX DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648 |
| Jeffrey Wayne Church |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Robert W Hooper |
director |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 10220-L OLD COLUMBIA ROAD, COLUMBIA MD 21046 |
| Andreas Voss |
director |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 997 LENOX DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648 |
| Egwu, Inc. Fka Egen, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
601 GENOME WAY, SUITE 3400, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Khursheed Anwer |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
C/O CELSION CORPORATION, 997 LENOX DRVIE, SUITE 100, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648 |
| Gregory L Weaver |
director |
185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 6504, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107 |
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