IDEAYA Biosciences (IDEAYA Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is IDEAYA Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IDEAYA Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IDEAYA Biosciences (IDEAYA Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » IDEAYA Biosciences Inc (NAS:IDYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

30J:Germany 30J:Germany

Address

7000 Shoreline Court, Suite 350, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.ideayabio.com

IDEAYA Biosciences Inc an oncology-focused precision medicine company committed to the discovery and development of targeted therapeutics for patient populations selected using molecular diagnostics. It is engaged in applying capabilities across multiple classes of precision medicine, including direct targeting of oncogenic pathways and synthetic lethality. The company's product candidate IDE196 is a protein kinase C, or PKC, an inhibitor for genetically-defined cancers having GNAQ or GNA11 gene mutations.

Executives

Yujiro S Hata	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Briseno Andres Ruiz	officer: See Remarks	C/O IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jason Throne	officer: VP, General Counsel	C/O IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Paul A. Stone	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Darrin Beaupre	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Catherine J Mackey	director	3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Michael Anthony White	officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer	C/O IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Michael P. Dillon	officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer	C/O IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Susan L. Kelley	director	C/O DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 SMITH STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Mark Lackner	officer: SVP, Head of Biology	C/O IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Andrew J. Schwab	10 percent owner, Former 10% holder	C/O 5AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
John D Diekman	10 percent owner, Former 10% holder	C/O 5 AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Scott M Rocklage	10 percent owner, Former 10% holder	C/O 5AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
5am Co-investors Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner, Former 10% holder	501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107