Integrated Device Technology (Integrated Device Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Integrated Device Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Integrated Device Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Integrated Device Technology (Integrated Device Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Integrated Device Technology Inc (NAS:IDTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6024 Silver Creek Valley Road, San Jose, CA, USA, 95138

Website

http://www.idt.com

Integrated Device Technology provides mixed-signal solutions including radio frequency, timing, wireless power transfer, serial switching, interfaces, and sensing. The firm's products are organized into two segments based on end markets: communications; and computing, consumer, and industrial. These products are used for development in 4G infrastructure, network communications, cloud data centers, and power management for mobile devices. Roughly half of the firm's revenue is generated in Hong Kong, with the rest coming from South Korea, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Executives

S Kenneth Kannappan	director	337 ENCINAL ST SANTA CRUZ CA 95060
Robert A. Rango	director	5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Gordon W Parnell	director	2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199
Brian C White	officer: SVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Gregory L Waters	officer: President & CEO	ONSEMI C/O H. SPENCER, 5701 NORTH PIMA ROAD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85250
Norman P Taffe	director	3901 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Xianzhi Sean Fan	officer: Sr Vice President&Corporate GM	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Umesh Padval	director	BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 535 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 245, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Donald E Schrock	director	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Jeffrey Stephen Mccreary	director	C/O MIPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 955 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Peter A Feld	director	201 E LAS OLAS BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Tewksbury Ted L Iii	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Kelley Steven-waiss	officer: VP HUMAN RESOURCES	7005 SOUTHFRONT ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Paul E Rolls	officer: SR. VP WORLDWIDE SALES &	C/O ON SEMICONDUCTOR, 5005 E MCDOWELL RD MD A700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Lewis C Eggebrecht	director	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138