What is Iconic Brands Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Iconic Brands Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Iconic Brands (Iconic Brands) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
44 Seabro Avenue, Amityville, NY, USA, 11701
Iconic Brands Inc is engaged in the development and sale of alcohol and non-alcohol brands that are Better-for-You (BFY) and Better-for-the-Planet. The company's brands include Bellissima by Christie Brinkley, a premium BFY collection of Prosecco, Sparkling Wines, and Still Wines, all certified vegan and made with organic grapes. The Company has two reportable segments: the sale of branded alcoholic beverages segment includes the development and sale of alcohol and non-alcohol brands that are BFY and better-for-the-planet and the specialty packaging segment includes the packaging of low-calorie, ready-to-go products, RTF products, and RTD products in sustainable, flexible and stand-up pouch packaging.
Executives
| David R Allen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O CONVERTED ORGANICS INC., 7A COMMERCIAL WHARF WEST, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Larry Romer |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
44 SEABRO AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Roseann Faltings |
director, officer: Vice President and Director |
44 SEABRO AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Innoaccel Investments Llc |
10 percent owner |
247 E. DARK HOLLOW RD., PIPERSVILLE PA 18947 |
| John Cosenza |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
44 SEABRO AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Thomas A. Belton |
10 percent owner |
247 E. DARK HOLLOW RD., PIPERSVILLE PA 18947 |
| Richard J Decicco |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Director |
44 SEABRO AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| William S. Blacker |
officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: V.P of Finance & Adminstration |
C/O HARBREW IMPORTS LTD. CORP., 102 BUFFALO AVENUE, FREEPORT NY 11520 |
| Edd Cockerill |
director, officer: President, CEO & CFO |
1921 DENVER WEST COURT, #2022, GOLDEN CO 80401 |
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