What is Hoth Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Hoth Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Hoth Therapeutics (Hoth Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1 Rockefeller Plaza, Suite 1039, New York, NY, USA, 10020
Hoth Therapeutics Inc is a development-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on targeted therapeutics for patients suffering from conditions such as atopic dermatitis, also known as eczema, chronic wounds, psoriasis, asthma, and acne. The company owns the BioLexa Platform which combines an FDA-approved zinc chelator with one or more approved antibiotics in a topical dosage form to address unchecked eczema flare-ups.
Executives
| Jeff Pavell |
director |
1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Robb Knie |
director, officer: CEO and President |
C/O INVENTERGY GLOBAL, INC., 900 EAST HAMILTON AVENUE SUITE 180, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Stefanie Johns |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Anthony Hayes |
director |
1796 SHADY LANE, COLUMBIA SC 29206 |
| Wayne Linsley |
director |
1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Graig Springer |
director |
1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Spherix Inc |
10 percent owner |
725 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Vadim Mats |
director |
285 GRAND AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631 |
| Rice Kenneth L Jr |
director |
C/O 85 MAIN STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
| David Sarnoff |
director |
1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| David S. Briones |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O PETRO RIVER OIL COMPANY, 1980 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Matthew D. Eitner |
10 percent owner |
44 BRAMS HILL DRIVE, MAHWAH NJ 07430 |
| Kevin Jess Poor |
10 percent owner |
750 BEULAHS LANE, IDAHO FALLS ID 83401 |
| James P. Ahern |
10 percent owner |
20 WEST 64TH STREET, APT 18RS, NEW YORK NY 10023 |
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