Tianqi Lithium (HKSE:09696) Predictability Rank

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What is Tianqi Lithium Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tianqi Lithium Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tianqi Lithium (HKSE:09696) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Tianqi Lithium Corp (HKSE:09696) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2220:Germany

Address

No. 10 East Gaopeng Road, Building 1, Hi-Tech Zone, Sichuan, Chengdu, CHN

Website

http://www.tianqilithium.com

Tianqi Lithium is a leading new energy materials company headquartered in China. The company is the largest producer of mined lithium globally in terms of output and is ranked third in terms of revenue generated from lithium, according to Wood Mackenzie. It is also the world's fourth largest and Asia's second largest lithium compound producer, as measured by production output, according to the same source. Tianqi is the only lithium producer in China that has achieved 100% self-sufficiency and has fully vertically integrated lithium mines. It operates in critical stages of the lithium value chain, including: 1) mining of lithium ore and manufacturing of lithium concentrate; and 2) manufacturing of lithium compounds and derivatives.

Executives

Pacific Asset Management Co., Ltd.	2501 Other
Jiang Jinzhi	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.
Huatai Securities Co., Ltd.
China International Capital Corporation Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley Asia Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jin Shan Xiang Gang Guo Ji Kuang Ye You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Zi Jin Kuang Ye Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hwabao Trust Co., Ltd	2301 Trustee
China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited	2105 Underwriter
China International Capital Corporation (international) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley Hong Kong 1238 Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited	2105 Underwriter
Lg Chem, Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner

Tianqi Lithium (HKSE:09696) Headlines

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