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Megain Holding (Cayman) Co (HKSE:06939) Predictability Rank


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What is Megain Holding (Cayman) Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Megain Holding (Cayman) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Megain Holding (Cayman) Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Megain Holding (Cayman) Co (HKSE:06939) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Megain Holding (Cayman) Co Ltd (HKSE:06939) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:03638 HKSE:02028 HKSE:01079 HKSE:01263 HKSE:03336 ANET DELL SZSE:002415 HPQ TSE:7751 TPE:2382 SHSE:688041 NTAP STX HKSE:00992 WDC SMCI XSWX:LOGN PSTG TPE:2395
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 115 Huawei Road, Block A, Floor 3, Guangdong Province, Zhuhai, CHN, 519000
Website
https://www.megaincayman.com
Megain Holding (Cayman) Co Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the provision of research, design, development, and sales of compatible cartridge chips based in China. The company's products are the core components of compatible cartridges, which are printer consumables designed and manufactured by third-party cartridge manufacturers and include ink cartridges for use in inkjet printers and toner cartridges for use in laser printers. Its product application includes Desktop laser printers, Desktop inkjet printers, and Commercial printers. The company derives a majority of its revenue from the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Cheng Hsien-wei 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Global Megain Technology Pte. Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Arista Global Ltd. 2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Lee Kuo-chang 2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Good Loyal Corporation 2101 Beneficial owner
Yu Yiding 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lam Tsz Leung 2101 Beneficial owner

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